Thousands Could Die From Heat by 2050 as Netherlands Faces Tough Climate Choices
A major new report from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency sets out stark projections for heat deaths, housing damage and wildfire, and says the country must now make difficult choices about who gets protected and at what cost.
The Netherlands is insufficiently prepared for the consequences of climate change, and without additional measures the situation will worsen significantly by 2050. That is the central conclusion of a new report from the Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, published today. The report, titled "Voorbij de risico's: keuzes voor een klimaatbestendige leefomgeving" (Beyond the risks: choices for a climate-resilient living environment), was produced at the request of the ministries involved in the National Climate Adaptation Strategy and will feed directly into its revision later this year.
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What the projections show
Without additional measures, thousands of people could die prematurely each year by 2050 due to extreme heat. Hundreds of thousands of homes face a greater risk of foundation damage caused by drought-induced soil drying. Nature and water quality will come under increasing pressure, and the number of wildfires will double.
Apartments are particularly vulnerable to heat. By 2050, more than half of all apartments may no longer offer adequate protection against heat, with consequences for health, sleep and labour productivity.
Agriculture also faces serious risks. Under unchanged policy, the arable farming sector could face extreme drought once every ten years by 2050, causing damage of between 100 million and 1 billion euros. The livestock sector could expect losses of around 500 million euros per year from heat stress in animals. Drought periods are projected to occur three times as often as today and with greater intensity.
Who do we protect, and how much does it cost
The PBL says the Netherlands must determine how much extra mortality and damage from climate change is acceptable, and who gets protected and to what degree. Full protection against all climate risks is not possible, which means choices must be made about who is prioritised: the most vulnerable people, the natural environment, or economic sectors such as agriculture.
PBL director Marko Hekkert said: "Adapting to climate change is unavoidable. The question is not whether the Netherlands prepares, but whether we make the choices now to keep our country liveable, fair and resilient in a warmer, drier and wetter climate."
Two directions for adaptation
The report describes two broad approaches, noting that a combination of both will be necessary.
The first, which PBL calls "intensiveren" (intensifying), focuses on technical measures: installing more air conditioning, fitting sun blinds, reinforcing infrastructure. These offer short-term relief, but it is uncertain whether they are sufficient in the long term. They can also increase inequality and require additional energy and money.
The second, "transformeren" (transforming), involves structural changes to how land is used and where things are built: more parks, trees and water features in cities, rethinking where housing is developed, and redesigning landscapes to retain water. This approach requires a longer-term investment strategy and political will, but offers more durable results.
The report also warns that major investments currently planned in housing construction, infrastructure and the energy transition must incorporate climate adaptation. If they do not, the damage and costs in the future will be substantially higher.
The broader picture
The consequences affect virtually all sectors. Heat causes health problems and reduces labour productivity. Drought puts drinking water availability, the state of nature and agricultural yields under pressure. Extreme rainfall can damage homes and infrastructure and can cause outages in essential services such as energy and communications.
Even with additional measures, some consequences of climate change will be unavoidable. It is therefore also essential to increase societal resilience: governments, citizens and businesses must be better prepared for disruptions and crises caused by extreme weather, through investment in knowledge, warning systems, crisis management and public awareness.
The PBL carried out the analysis in collaboration with Deltares, TNO, the KNMI, RIVM, TU Delft, WUR and several other research institutions. The report feeds into both the revision of the National Climate Adaptation Strategy and the recalibration of the Delta Decisions, both scheduled for 2026.
