Flight Tickets Could Get Hundreds of Euros Pricier as the Iran War Drags On

Since US and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran on February 28, more than 21,000 flights have been cancelled at seven major airports including Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi. The immediate chaos has been well documented, with tens of thousands of travellers stranded across the region. But aviation experts are now warning that the financial fallout could extend far beyond those already stuck, hitting the wallets of anyone planning to fly in the coming weeks and months.

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There are two forces pushing flight prices higher, and they are both being driven by the same conflict.

The first is simple supply and demand. Passengers have already reported seeing sky-high ticket prices on available routes, and many routes within the next week are completely sold out or have exorbitant prices for the last remaining seats. When thousands of flights are cancelled at once and travellers scramble to find alternatives, prices on the remaining options spike quickly.

The second and more lasting pressure is fuel costs. Airlines have been forced to either cancel flights or shift to longer routes to avoid the closed airspace across the Middle East. That is straining operating costs, and ticket prices could become more expensive if airlines have to pay more for fuel the longer the war drags on.

Airline fuel costs typically account for 20 to 30% of total operating costs, especially for long-haul carriers. Oil prices were hovering around $60 a barrel at the start of 2026 and had already risen to $80 by early March. Higher fuel prices quickly lead to higher costs, and airlines will need to adjust their ticket prices to keep revenues up.

The route problem

The Middle East sits at the centre of one of the world's most important aviation crossroads. Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha are not just holiday destinations but major transit hubs connecting Europe to Asia, Africa, and Australia. With Russian airspace already closed and multiple Middle Eastern routes now suspended, carriers must navigate a patchwork of restrictions, making long-haul routing more complicated and more expensive than ever.

The price of flights between Asia and Europe has already soared, with airline websites showing tickets on many popular routes booked out for days. Major Gulf hubs including Dubai, which normally handles over 1,000 flights a day, remained closed for a fourth consecutive day on Tuesday.

The effect is not limited to travellers flying to or through the Middle East. Anyone booking a long-haul flight between Europe and destinations in Asia or Australia may find fewer options and higher prices for the foreseeable future.

How long will this last?

That is the key question, and the answer determines just how significant the price impact will be. How far ticket prices go up will be determined by how long the conflict lasts and what sort of impact it has on oil infrastructure in the Middle East.

With President Trump projecting the military campaign will last four to five weeks, or potentially longer, travel disruptions across the region show no immediate sign of easing. For context, the previous Israel-Iran conflict in June 2025 lasted 12 days. A longer conflict this time would mean a more sustained period of higher fuel costs, longer routes, and reduced capacity on some of the world's busiest flight corridors.

ING analysts expect oil prices to come down later in 2026, but note this depends entirely on how the conflict develops.

What this means for travellers booking flights

For anyone with upcoming travel plans, the advice from experts is clear. Many airlines are taking refund requests or offering free rebooking, but such options are often limited to specific dates or routes, so it is important to check individual airline websites for up to date information. For future trips, buying refundable tickets now may provide more flexibility.

On travel insurance, acts of war and civil unrest are typically excluded from standard policies because they are unpredictable, though coverage for delays may still apply depending on the specific policy. Reading the small print carefully before purchasing is essential.

For now, the scale of disruption means that anyone flying in or out of the Netherlands in the coming weeks should expect some degree of impact, whether that is a longer flight, a pricier ticket, or a route that looks quite different from what was originally booked.